Live Talk Show : The Power of a System Dynamics Approach in Projection COVID-19 in Indonesia
April 4, 2020, a increasing in the number of COVID-19 Positive cases in Indonesia has made the pandemic notice a headline for every media. Not only that, many Talk Shows invite experts to share information with each other to discuss and exchange opinions.
Included in the System Dynamics Center Chanel held a Live Talk Show (E-Discuss), with the theme “When is the Peak of COVID-19 in Indonesia”. One day after sharing information on Thursday, April 2, 2020, it was filled by 150 participants who registered to take part in the E-Discuss.
Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 10:00, the event began for 2 hours. With the speaker as an expert in the System Dynamics Indonesia, Dr. Irman Firmansyah, M.Si who will share the model that has been developed with his team. “This model was developed to predict a simulation of the estimated growth of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia”. Not only that, he delivered the advantages of simulation results with System Dynamics. “With a System Dynamics we don’t just look at the case data, and make projections, but we need to establish a relationship between the COVID-19 case variables (systems thinking with causal loop), then validate with real data”.
From the study he delivered, he stated “This is very typical when building the COVID-19 model in Indonesia, because Indonesia is an archipolegic country that cannot be generalized as a constant for each island. Because we can make the assumption such as the transfer of COVID-19 cases from one country to another, so we must first look for inter-regional constants “.
“In research conducted by Dr. Irman Firmansyah with the team, “The opportunity from physical contact is also determined by the amount of population mobility and the regional economy in the case “. The E-discuss is very interested by the participants in the discussion, so it feels less for two hours. Message delivered by Dr. Irman Firmansyah before closing the event”.
“The model is built to see behavior, but learn the behavior to build a model”.